2. An aged society on the horizon

In 2022, eight megalopolises in China experienced negative population growth, including central and southern parts of Liaoning, the Harbin-Changchun region, the Chengdu-Chongqing region, the Yangtze River Delta, Central Shanxi, the Guanzhong Plains, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and Central Plains. Central and southern parts of Liaoning and the Harbin-Changchun region suffered particularly severe declines in population, with their populations shrinking in the 2015-2022 period on an average basis. This indicates that a declining birthrate is a significant issue that should raise concerns in China.

The Pearl River Delta witnesses the highest population growth rate, followed by central Guizhou, the Beibu Bay, coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces, the areas along the Yellow River in northern Ningxia, the Central Plains, the Shandong Peninsula, central Yunnan, the Lanzhou-Xining region, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Their average population growth rates over the 2015-2022 period ranged from 10.1‰ to 4.6‰.

Thanks to its highest natural population growth rate nationwide and a large influx of young people, the population aged 65 and above in the Pearl River Delta is 6.5%, the smallest proportion among the 19 megalopolises, followed by the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, the areas along the Yellow River in northern Ningxia, central Yunnan, the Beibu Bay, central Guizhou, the Lanzhou-Xining region, the Hohhot-Baotou-Erdos-Yulin region, and coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang provinces.

In the Chengdu-Chongqing region, 17.4% of its population is at 65 or above, the highest among the 19 megalopolises, followed by central and southern parts of Liaoning, the Harbin-Changchun region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Shandong Peninsula, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, at 17.3%, 15.3%, 15.3%, 15.1%, and 14.1% respectively. Some of these megalopolises have slipped into negative natural population growth in recent years, some have had a significant dropping out of prime age adults, and the others have faced a more miserable situation, suffering both population declines and outflows of prime age adults.

Professor Zhou pointed out, the U.N. defines an "aging society" as one where people aged 65 or above constitute more than 14% of the total population. Currently, the proportion of old people in China has reached 13.7%, within a whisker of becoming an aging society.

Zhou said, the six megalopolises, including the Chengdu-Chongqing region, have already been among the first in China to enter an aging society.

Editor:Yu Wang